On the 24th of January I predicted that Russia would not invade. So wrong! My only comfort is that those I follow were wrong as well. But I thought so for good reason. Seemed to me that Russia had already won and its strategic position is weak. Why risk losing?
First, I do not believe the Russians are mad and thus will not use nukes unless faced with a truly existential threat, and not to save face or in anger. Peremptorily using nukes would in fact create an existential threat.
Next, I keep in mind that Ukraine is twice the size of Texas with a population of 44m.
So, my questions are…
– To what extent will the Ukrainians resist?
– Would the fall of Kiev break their will to resist?
– Would the government move its seat to Eastern Ukraine, its ethnic and linguistic heartland?
– Can the Russians occupy Eastern Ukraine? I contend to effectively control any territory you must control the countryside. You cannot allow insurgents to operate in that space.
– Lastly will arms and supplies from any actor or agency in the West regularly enter Ukraine from this time on? Anti-Russian sentiment is high and I aways keep my eye on what Bubba Sixpack thinks. He moves the needle.
My $.02. Remember my friends. I’m a nobody observing from the bleachers.
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